Empirical SCOTUS: Without a swing vote, it’s game over for the Democrats

The Democrats are in a precarious position in the latest battle for a seat on the Supreme Court. Many Democrats oppose Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination and will not vote to confirm him. Others are requesting that the Senate hold off on voting on Kavanaugh’s confirmation until the National Archives produces the record-setting million or so pages of documents from Kavanaugh’s work in the federal government. The Democrats’ strategy is twofold. First, if they can push the vote until after the midterm elections, they may gain a majority in the House, Senate or both, potentially giving them greater leverage over the confirmation process. Second, some of the documents, specifically those from when Kavanaugh worked in the White House counsel’s office under President George W. Bush, might paint a more contentious picture of Kavanaugh and one that makes him less characterizable as a confirmable candidate. As several articles have pointed out though, the…

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